What is Omicron?
Omicron is a variant of the Covid 19 virus that started in mid-2020. Researchers have identified about 50 mutations in the viral genome and 36 of them are in the spike domain (The Washington Post), which may be the reason it behaves differently from Delta. (I wouldn’t worry so much about the number of mutations. The increase in mutations does not necessarily correlate to virulence or how deadly the virus becomes.)
No one knows exactly where it evolved from ( Where did ‘weird’ Omicron come from? | Science | AAAS ) Scientists don’t believe it came from the Alpha or the Delta variant. It seemed to have emerged in the middle of 2020 and began to spread at that time. Specific testing for Omicron was not being done at the time so it remains unknown as to how far back it actually began to spread.
Sikhulile Moyo, (News | Harvard ) director at the Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (BHP) lab in Gaborone and a research associate in immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health have been credited in identifying the variant. It may be possible, however, that it originated outside the continent. What is important now, however, is that it is predicted to surpass infections caused by the Delta variant.
Researchers in Hong Kong “found that Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus” (HKUMed News) The more virus that an infected individual reproduces in the airways, the greater potential there is to shed viral particles and contaminate others when the person coughs in a room.
Below is the infection spread of Omicron (The New York Times) published on January 5, 2022.
So far, Omicron has acted like a villain in a superhero movie inducing mild symptoms such as runny nose, headache, fatigue (either mild or severe), sneezing and sore throat.
What is interesting, however, is that although infection rates are higher this time around compared to the Delta wave, there has not been an accompanying increase in deaths and hospitalizations from the Omicron wave.
Look at the graph below from South Africa: South Africa COVID Worldometer
The Omicron infection wave (Daily New Cases) that emerged in December 2021 and January 2022 is much higher than the Delta wave that occurred in December 2020 and January 2021 as well as the July 2021 wave. Yet the death rate in January 2022 (Daily New Deaths) is significantly lower than the death rate last year in January 2021 and July of 2021.
The same phenomenon appears to be happening in the United States as shown in the two graphs below: United States Worldometer
Although Omicron cases in New York have been found to shoot up for the past couple of days with subsequent increase in hospitalizations, there have been some observation by physicians that the counting of Omicron hospital admissions may be inaccurate ( NBC news ). A significant number of patients are admitted because of an ailment other than Covid. These patients then become diagnosed with Covid infection while in the hospital. They are then counted as a “Covid patient”. This suggests an over-counting of primarily Omicron Covid hospitalizations.
There is a lot of data and news about Omicron. So, what does this mean for us common folk? Omicron will spread. It will predictably infect us all whether you are vaccinated or unvaccinated. But the best defense for Omicron as well as Delta and any other variant that is out there or is waiting to be born in the near future is vaccination, which minimizes symptoms and significantly reduces the possibility of getting intubated in the ICU. Additionally, social distancing and wearing masks are very helpful.
There are several vaccines to choose from and the pace of vaccine production has caught up so that anyone who wants a shot can get a shot in the United States. Some long lines have formed but the supply of the vaccine, as of the writing of this article, remains sufficient. “Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna two-dose COVID-19 vaccine series and then a booster achieved “potent” neutralization against omicron, a paper published Thursday (Jan. 6) in the journal Cell found.” (COVID boosters with Pfizer or Moderna are best against omicron: study (usatoday.com)
So far only “59.3% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. 9.46 billion doses have been administered globally, and 31.65 million are now administered each day. Only 8.9% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.” (Our World in Data)
This means that approximately 40% of the world population remains completely unvaccinated. Once Omicron spreads to these unvaccinated population groups, we may finally accomplish the herd immunity we’ve been trying to achieve since the beginning of this pandemic.
The good news is that Omicron appears to be not as deadly as Delta. Omicron may sound like a villain in the television news cycle right now, but it may not be all bad. I predict that being infected with Omicron and subsequently recovering from the mild disease may also provide some significant immune defense from Delta or any future variant that comes along.
I certainly don’t suggest that Omicron be permitted or promoted to spread around but many scientists believe that because it is many times more infectious than Delta, Omicron may eventually infect all of us. Recovery from Omicron may provide immunity to the unvaccinated whether they chose to get vaccinated or not.
Here are some bullet points:
· Get vaccinated. The risk of getting sick from Covid is much higher than the risk of getting sick from the vaccine. Also, not only do you protect yourself from serious disease, but you contribute in protecting others especially the old, the unvaccinated children, and those individuals with co-morbidities such as hypertension and diabetes.
· Omicron is spreading fast. It will infect all of us whether we are vaccinated or not. Fortunately, Omicron is not as deadly as the other variants especially if you’re vaccinated. This may be the next chapter in the Covid 19 saga where everyone will have some form of immunity from Covid after recovering from Omicron.
· More variants are sure to come. But the immunity gained after recovering from Omicron may be sufficient to protect us from these old and new villains and eventually slow down the evolution of future variants.
Right now, Omicron sounds like a supervillain. But I think that by midsummer the world might possibly achieve herd immunity from Covid because of the near global transmission of Omicron. If we’re lucky, we may get back to normalcy and eventually return to pre-pandemic times in six months.
In my next article, I’ll discuss the various covid tests and provide a brief review of the ones I’ve taken. Stay tuned.
Follow me on twitter to get updates: @biomedwithdrito